Retelling the Tale of Two Democracies - How Shifting Urban-Rural Dynamics Shaped Thailand’s 2023 General Election
This project analyzes the urban-rural divide in Thailand's 2023 general election using multi-dimensional data. By combining Meta's high-resolution population density estimates, VIIRS satellite night-time light data, and land use classification from Thailand's Land Development Department into a constituency-level urbanization index, I reveal how the traditional Bangkok-versus-countryside dichotomy has transformed into more complex urban-rural divides within individual provinces and constituencies. My analysis demonstrates that ideologically-driven parties with reform-oriented candidates perform better in urban areas, while parties specializing in candidate-centered, locally-driven campaigns achieve greater success in rural constituencies. The findings also reveal distinctive ballot-splitting behavior in rural areas, where voters support nationally appealing parties like the Move Forward Party in party-list voting while choosing local candidates from other parties for constituency seats, reflecting sophisticated strategic voting across the urban-rural spectrum.
